May 2026 Market Update

Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – May 2026
By Gina Piper | Published May 2026

Key Takeaways

Mortgage rates:  Highest levels since August 2025
Treasury yields:  30-year Treasury surpassed 5% for the first time since 2007
Inventory levels:  Continued rising across all Tri-Valley cities
Buyer demand:  Sluggish in lower and mid-price ranges, strong at the luxury level
Luxury market:  High-end homes continue to see strong demand and multiple offers
Summer outlook:  Market likely to remain stable unless rates decline meaningfully

Current Rate Environment

30-year fixed mortgage rates: Approximately 6.625%–6.875% (May 2026)
Highest mortgage rates since August 2025
30-year Treasury yield surpassed 5% for the first time since 2007
10-year Treasury peaked at 4.67%, its highest level since January 2025

Mortgage rates moved sharply higher over the past month following a spike in Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury, which mortgage rates tend to closely follow, reached its highest level of the year last week before easing slightly over the past few days.

Much of the recent volatility has been tied to inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the conflict with Iran. However, rates have improved modestly recently as reports suggest a potential agreement to end the conflict may be nearing.

The new Federal Reserve Chair was also sworn in last week, creating speculation that monetary policy could shift in a more rate-friendly direction compared to the previous Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

What This Means for Buyers

Higher mortgage rates continue to impact affordability, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges of the market.

Loan Amount Payment @ 6.25% Payment @ 6.875% Monthly Increase
$1,000,000 ~$6,150 ~$6,570 ~$420
$1,500,000 ~$9,225 ~$9,855 ~$630
$2,000,000 ~$12,300 ~$13,140 ~$840

Even relatively small increases in rates can significantly affect monthly payments and overall purchasing power.

Tri-Valley Inventory Levels

Current Snapshot (May 2026)

City Active Listings Change from April
Pleasanton 120 homes +3
Dublin 183 homes +15
Livermore 167 homes +33
San Ramon 160 homes +3
Danville 159 homes +15
Alamo 33 homes +1

Inventory levels increased across all Tri-Valley cities over the past month. Some markets experienced only modest gains, while Livermore saw one of the larger increases month over month.

Average days on market have largely stabilized throughout the region, and current inventory and absorption levels will likely remain relatively consistent through the early fall unless mortgage rates move significantly lower.

Buyer Demand Becoming More Segmented

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

Slower activity in lower and mid-price ranges
Luxury market continuing to perform exceptionally well
Turnkey homes still attracting the strongest interest
Dated or overpriced homes seeing extended market times

The market continues to reward:

Strategic pricing
Proper preparation
Turnkey presentation

Buyers remain cautious and payment-sensitive in many price ranges, while luxury buyers continue to move aggressively when the right opportunities become available.

Luxury Market Remains a Bright Spot

The higher end of the market continues to show impressive strength despite elevated mortgage rates. My recent listing on Piemonte Drive in Ruby Hill, listed at $4 million, received seven offers within just a few days on the market.

Many high-net-worth buyers are less affected by interest rates, and with stock markets near record highs, a significant percentage of these purchases are being made with cash.

This trend continues to create a noticeable separation between the luxury segment and the broader market.

Summer Market Outlook

Historically:

Inventory stabilizes during summer months
Buyer activity typically slows slightly after spring peak
Luxury activity often remains steady through summer

Unless we see a meaningful drop in mortgage rates, the market will likely remain relatively similar throughout the summer months.

If tensions in the Middle East ease further and oil prices decline, inflation pressures could soften, potentially allowing mortgage rates to move lower later this year.

Why This Matters for Sellers

Pricing strategy is becoming increasingly important
Turnkey homes continue to outperform
Luxury homes remain in strong demand
Overpricing is being penalized more quickly in today’s market

What This Means for Sellers

Advantages of Listing in Summer 2026:

Inventory growth appears to be slowing in some cities
Luxury demand remains strong
Well-prepared homes are still moving quickly
Potential upside if rates ease later this year

What This Means for Buyers

Advantages:

More inventory and better selection than earlier in the year
Less competition in many lower and mid-range segments
Potential opportunity if rates improve later this year

Challenges:

Higher borrowing costs
Affordability pressure remains significant
Well-priced turnkey homes still selling quickly

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did mortgage rates increase so much?
Rising Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and geopolitical instability all contributed to the recent spike in mortgage rates.

Are rates expected to decline?
Possibly. If inflation eases and tensions with Iran subside, rates could move lower again later this year.

Why is the luxury market still so strong?
Luxury buyers are generally less sensitive to interest rates, and many are purchasing homes with cash due to strong stock market performance and accumulated wealth gains.

Are homes still receiving multiple offers?
Yes, particularly turnkey homes and luxury properties that are priced appropriately.

Will inventory continue increasing?
Inventory growth is expected to moderate, with relatively stable market conditions likely through early fall.

Market Forecast: Next 90 Days

May 2026

Inventory: Increasing modestly
Rates: Elevated but volatile
Buyer activity: Slower in lower price ranges, strong in luxury
Competition: Moderate overall, high in select luxury segments

June 2026

Inventory: Stabilizing
Rates: Dependent on inflation and geopolitical developments
Buyer activity: Balanced
Competition: Stable

July 2026

Inventory: Stable
Rates: Potential easing if inflation improves
Buyer activity: Seasonally slower overall
Competition: Moderate

Local Market Summary

As of May 2026, the Tri-Valley real estate market—including Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon, Danville, and Alamo—is experiencing rising inventory levels alongside the highest mortgage rates seen since mid-2025. Buyer activity has slowed in the lower and middle price ranges due to affordability pressures, while the luxury market continues to perform exceptionally well. Turnkey homes remain the strongest-performing segment of the market, while dated or overpriced homes are sitting longer unless priced aggressively. Market conditions are expected to remain relatively stable through the summer unless mortgage rates decline meaningfully later this year.