Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – June 2026

By Gina Piper

If I had to summarize today's market in one sentence, it would be this: buyers haven't disappeared, they have simply become much more selective.

Over the past month, inventory levels have remained relatively stable throughout most of the Tri-Valley, but homes are taking longer to sell. That's not because there aren't buyers. It's because today's buyers have become far more discerning than they were just a year ago.

The combination of elevated mortgage rates, higher renovation costs, and ongoing economic uncertainty has buyers thinking much harder before writing an offer. They're willing to pay top dollar for the right home, but they're far less willing to take on a project.

Mortgage Rates Remain the Biggest Story

Mortgage rates have improved modestly from the highs we saw a few weeks ago, dropping roughly one-quarter to one-half of a percent. While that's certainly encouraging, rates remain high enough to keep affordability under pressure for many buyers.

Oil prices have fallen back to levels we saw before the conflict with Iran, but gasoline prices haven't fully reflected that decline yet. Unfortunately, the most recent inflation report which was heavily influenced by energy costs came in at the highest level we've seen since 2023.

If oil prices remain low and fuel costs continue to come down, I believe those inflation numbers could improve over the next couple of months. However, at this point, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have largely disappeared. In fact, many economists are now discussing the possibility of another rate increase if inflation doesn't moderate.

For now, I think mortgage rates will likely remain in their current range until we see clearer signs that inflation is moving back under control.

Inventory Has Finally Leveled Off

After climbing steadily since the beginning of the year, inventory appears to be settling into its typical summer pattern.

Here's where inventory stands today:

These numbers suggest we've likely reached our seasonal plateau. Historically, inventory tends to remain fairly consistent through the remainder of the summer before gradually declining as we move into the fall. 

Homes Are Taking Longer to Sell

One trend that's impossible to ignore is the increase in marketing times.

Average days on market increased across every Tri-Valley city this past month, generally by five to ten days. That's a clear indication that buyers are taking more time to make decisions and have become increasingly selective.

That doesn't mean homes aren't selling.

It means buyers are expecting value.

The Market Has Become Two Completely Different Markets

Perhaps the biggest trend I'm seeing right now is the growing separation between turnkey homes and everything else.

Homes that have been updated, staged well, and priced correctly are still selling in a reasonable amount of time. Buyers are willing to pay a premium for homes where they can simply move in and enjoy them.

On the other hand, homes that need updating are becoming much more difficult to sell unless they're priced aggressively enough to compensate buyers for today's renovation costs.

Contractors remain expensive. Materials remain expensive. Financing those improvements is expensive.

As a result, buyers are demanding larger discounts than we've seen over the past several years.

Condos and Townhomes Continue to Struggle

The entry-level market remains the most affected by today's interest rates.

Condominiums and townhomes are taking anywhere from ten to twenty days longer to sell than comparable single-family homes in many Tri-Valley communities.

These buyers are typically financing a larger percentage of the purchase price or more affected by interest rates, making monthly payments much more sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations.

Luxury Market Still Going Strong

The luxury market continues to tell a completely different story.

Many higher-end buyers are purchasing with substantial cash or very large down payments, making them far less sensitive to mortgage rates than buyers in lower price ranges.

Well-presented luxury homes continue to attract strong interest, reinforcing the fact that demand remains healthy where affordability isn't the primary concern.

My Outlook

I don't expect dramatic changes over the remainder of the summer.

Inventory has likely reached its seasonal peak, and I expect it to remain relatively stable before beginning its normal decline in early fall.

Unless we see a meaningful improvement in mortgage rates, I think the market will continue to look much like it does today:

• A healthy luxury market.
• Slower activity in the lower and middle price ranges.
• Turnkey homes continuing to outperform.
• Buyers remaining patient and selective.

For sellers, preparation and pricing have never been more important. The homes that stand out are still selling. Those that don't are sitting.

As always, every neighborhood and every price range behaves a little differently. If you're wondering what today's market means for your particular home, or if you're considering buying later this year I'd be happy to share what I'm seeing in your neighborhood and help you put together a strategy that makes sense for your goals.