September Market Update

Interest rates are leading the news this month, having dropped to levels we haven’t seen in 3 years, prior to today's rate cut. Last week’s weaker-than-expected jobs report was the main driver behind the decline, signaling a softening job market, and all but forced the FED to cut rates today by 25%. The FED's statement after the rate cut was not clear about future cuts, although the market is expecting 2 more this year. It could be debated that a .5% rate cut was supported, given the weak job numbers and recent downward adjustment, removing 910,000 jobs from the total 2024's new jobs numbers. As of now, the 10-year treasury, which is considered a benchmark for mortgage rates, is yielding 4.067%, which is higher than the 3.99% yield prior today's rate cut, so it is possible mortgage rates could end up moving higher.

Mortgage demand has surged to its highest level in three years, with both refinance and purchase loan applications showing strong increases. I’m hopeful this momentum will encourage more buyers to move off the sidelines and bring renewed energy to the market. Last weekend’s open houses were very well attended, so hopefully this activity is a good indicator.

Inventory levels have remained mostly stable in the Tri-Valley over the last month. We have seen very little changes in most Tri-Valley cities, with the exception of Pleasanton and San Ramon, both of which saw sizable declines. I anticipate inventory levels will ease through year-end, though sharper rate drops could shift dynamics and prompt more activity from both buyers and sellers. Many experts are forecasting mortgage rates could fall another ½ to 1 percent before the end of the year. If that proves true, we may see a meaningful uptick in market activity.