Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – September 2025

By Gina Piper | Published September 15, 2025

Key Takeaways

• Mortgage rates: Dropped to levels not seen in nearly three years following the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut

• Buyer activity: Surging as refinance and purchase loan applications reach their highest level in three years

• Inventory levels: Mostly stable; slight declines in Pleasanton and San Ramon

• Market trend: Open houses well attended; renewed energy expected as buyers move off the sidelines

• Market outlook: Potential for further rate drops of 0.5%–1% could drive increased activity before year-end

Mortgage Rates and Financing

Current Rate Environment

• Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points following a weaker-than-expected jobs report

• 10-year Treasury yield currently at 4.067%, slightly higher than pre-cut yield of 3.99%

• Mortgage rates may not immediately reflect the Fed cut; broader economic factors like inflation and bond market activity continue to influence borrowing costs

What This Means for Buyers

• Lower rates have sparked the strongest mortgage demand in three years, including both refinance and purchase applications

• Open houses over the past weekend saw high turnout, signaling strong buyer interest

• Potential for additional rate cuts later in 2025 could further incentivize buyers

Strategic Considerations

Buyer Activity

What We’re Seeing on the Ground

• Mortgage demand at three-year highs; purchase and refinance applications both increasing

• Open houses attracting strong crowds and renewed interest

• Buyers who had been waiting on the sidelines are beginning to move

Seller Conditions

Strategic Considerations for Sellers

• Market energy returning, but pricing and positioning remain critical

• Open houses and property showings are drawing more buyers, yet inventory remains relatively stable, creating a balanced environment in many Tri-Valley neighborhoods

• Significant rate drops later this year could accelerate activity, creating an opportunity for sellers to act before year-end

Frequently Asked Questions

Will mortgage rates continue to drop?
While the Fed has cut rates, mortgage rates are influenced by multiple factors including the bond market, inflation expectations, and economic data. Many experts predict rates could fall another 0.5%–1% before the end of 2025, but this is not guaranteed.

Is now a good time to buy in the Tri-Valley?
Yes. Buyer demand is surging, and lower rates are improving affordability. However, quick decision-making may be required for desirable properties as interest increases.

Should I wait for additional rate cuts?
Waiting could save money if rates decline further, but higher competition could offset those savings. Balance the potential rate drop against your personal buying timeline and readiness.

How is inventory affecting the market?
Inventory remains mostly stable, with slight declines in Pleasanton and San Ramon. This has kept the market balanced, though sharp rate drops could prompt more listings and renewed competition.

What is the outlook for fall 2025?
Expect continued strong buyer activity and potential rate-driven market shifts. Seasonal trends and Fed policy will influence market momentum through year-end.

Local Market Expert Summary