Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – February 2026

By Gina Piper | Published February 2026

Key Takeaways

• Mortgage rates: Now below 6%, the lowest levels since 2022

• Inventory levels: Rising across all Tri-Valley cities as spring approaches

• Seller activity: Early signs of “rate-locked” sellers re-entering the market

• Buyer demand: Strong, with multiple-offer situations returning

• Spring outlook: Inventory and buyer activity both expected to increase through April

Mortgage Rates Drop Below 6%

Current Rate Environment

• 30-year fixed mortgage rates: Below 6% (February 2026)

• Lowest levels since 2022

• Down nearly 1% from early 2025 highs near 7%

Recent national data shows that more homeowners now carry mortgages above 6% than below 4%, signaling the early stages of the unwinding of “rate-locked” sellers. As rates fall closer to 5.5%–5.75%, more homeowners may feel comfortable listing their homes.

What This Means for Buyers

Lower rates improve affordability immediately.

Even modest rate declines can significantly impact monthly affordability and buyer confidence.

Tri-Valley Inventory Levels

Current Snapshot (February 15, 2026)

Inventory has increased across every Tri-Valley city as expected heading into the spring market. Danville experienced the largest jump month-over-month.

While inventory is rising, levels are still not excessive by historical standards, they are simply normalizing from the January lows.

Buyer Demand Remains Strong

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

• Multiple-offer situations returning on well-priced homes

• Strong showing activity across price ranges

• Move-in ready and turnkey homes selling the fastest

• Updated homes attracting the most aggressive offers

The market is rewarding:

• Proper preparation

• Strategic pricing

• Turnkey presentation

Buyers are active, but selective.

Spring Selling Season Building Momentum

Historically:

• Inventory rises in February

• Buyer demand strengthens in March–April

• Peak competition occurs in April–May

2026 appears to be following a classic early-spring pattern. 

Why This Matters for Sellers

• Rates below 6% are psychologically significant for buyers

• More sellers are entering the market, but buyer demand is absorbing inventory

• Homes listed now can capitalize on rising buyer enthusiasm

What This Means for Sellers

Advantages of Listing in March-April 2026:

• Growing buyer demand fueled by falling rates

• Strong activity on turnkey properties

• Opportunity to list before peak spring competition builds

• Rate momentum potentially bringing additional buyers off sidelines

What This Means for Buyers

Advantages:

• Rates at lowest levels in four years

• Increasing inventory provides more choices

• Opportunity to purchase before rates potentially fall further and increase competition

Challenges:

• Multiple-offer situations returning

• Best homes moving quickly

• Spring competition expected to intensify

Frequently Asked Questions

Are mortgage rates likely to continue falling?
Many economists expect gradual declines toward the mid-5% range in 2026, but rates remain dependent on inflation data and broader economic conditions.

Is the “rate-lock” effect ending?
It appears to be. With more homeowners now carrying mortgages above 6% than below 4%, falling rates are beginning to loosen seller hesitation.

Are homes receiving multiple offers again?
Yes, particularly move-in-ready and well-priced homes.

Will inventory continue rising?
Yes. Spring typically brings increased listings through April and May.

Is now a good time to sell?
Yes. Falling rates combined with growing buyer activity create favorable conditions before peak competition hits later in spring.

Market Forecast: Next 90 Days

March 2026

• Inventory: Continued increase

• Rates: Likely stable below 6%

• Buyer activity: Strong; more multiple offers

• Competition: Increasing

April 2026

• Inventory: Peak spring levels approaching

• Rates: Potential drift toward mid-to-high 5% range

• Buyer activity: Very active

• Competition: Highest of early 2026

May 2026

• Inventory: High

• Rates: Stabilizing

• Buyer activity: Strong but more spread across listings

Local Market Summary