June Market Update

What’s Going on in the Tri-Valley Real Estate Market?

If it feels like there are a lot more homes for sale right now, you're not imagining things. Redfin recently shared that there are around 500,000 more sellers than buyers in the market nationwide. Whether that number is correct or a little high, it matches what we’re seeing here in the Tri-Valley, with more homes for sale than people looking to buy.

If you're a buyer, it’s actually a great time to start looking. There’s a solid amount of inventory, and not a ton of competition. You can take your time, explore your options, and possibly score a better deal than you could’ve just a year or two ago.

On the flip side, sellers need to be a bit more patient. Homes in our area are sitting on the market for about 40 days on average, and many are going through price drops or selling for less than the original asking price. Some homes are still getting multiple offers and selling above asking, but those cases are getting fewer and farther between.

When it comes to inventory, things seem to be leveling out. Over the past few months, we saw a noticeable increase, but now it looks like things are settling in most Tri-Valley cities. Dublin and Pleasanton saw tiny bumps in the number of listings, Livermore and Alamo dipped slightly, and Danville and San Ramon ticked up a bit, but nothing dramatic. Across the board, homes are taking just a little longer to sell than before. Looking ahead, we’ll probably stay in this range through the summer and into early fall, unless something major shifts.

Interest rates are driving the market right now, and there are two camps on where they’re headed. Some people think the economy is solid, that we’ve avoided a recession, and that inflation from tariffs is going to push rates even higher. If that happens, borrowing will get more expensive, which could force more buyers to the sidelines.

Others believe the economy isn’t as strong as it seems, that we haven’t fully dodged a recession, and the tariffs will not be inflationary. If that’s true, rates could come down, opening the door for more buyers to jump back into the market.

There’s data backing up both arguments. We’ve got strong employment and income numbers, but at the same time, recent inflation data came in lower than expected, pointing to softening economic activity. It’s hard to say who is right in these unprecedented times, but we do know with certainty if rates go up, the market will slow down even more, and If they drop, we'll see a big wave of buyers return, which could heat things back up quickly.

So whether you're thinking of buying or selling, staying informed and flexible is key. The market's moving, and being ready to pivot with it can make all the difference.