Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – January 2026

By Gina Piper | Published January 15, 2026

Key Takeaways

• Mortgage rates: Dropped to 6.07%, the lowest level in nearly three years

• Inventory levels: At or near the annual lows across all Tri-Valley cities

• Buyer activity: Surprisingly strong, with many buyers off the sidelines

• Spring market: Appears to be starting 4–6 weeks earlier than usual

• Seller advantage: Low competition and strong buyer demand create premium pricing opportunities

Mortgage Rates Hit Nearly 3-Year Lows

Current Rate Environment

• 30-year fixed mortgage rate: ~6.07% (as of January 15, 2026)

• This represents a 0.75% decrease from January 2025, when rates averaged ~6.82%

What Caused the Rate Drop?

• Presidential directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities

• Rates briefly dipped below 6% last week before stabilizing around 6.07%

• Many experts speculate rates could reach 5.5%–5.75% later in 2026, depending on economic conditions

What This Means for Buyers

Example: A buyer purchasing a $2 million Tri-Valley home saves nearly $11,000 per year compared to January 2025 rates.

Tri-Valley Inventory Levels

Current Snapshot (January 15, 2026)

Inventory is currently at or near the lowest levels we’re likely to see this year. Historically, inventory begins to rise in early to mid-February.

Buyer Demand Is Surging

What I’m Seeing on the Ground

• High volume of calls from potential sellers indicating strong market activity

• Increased buyer activity over the past two weeks, with more showings and multiple-offer scenarios

• Spring selling season appears to be starting 4–6 weeks earlier than normal

Early Seller Advantages

• Limited competition combined with near three-year low rates

• Strong buyer demand driving faster sales and potential above-asking offers

• Homes listed now may capture early market attention before the broader spring inventory surge

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I sell now or wait until spring?
If you have flexibility, selling now offers a unique window with low competition, high buyer interest, and favorable mortgage rates. Waiting could mean more listings and increased competition.

Will mortgage rates continue to fall in 2026?
Experts are forecasting a potential 5.5%–5.75% range later in the year. Future rate movements depend on broader economic conditions and government policy.

Is buyer activity truly strong, or just a temporary spike?
Based on showings and offers observed recently, buyer activity is strong and appears sustainable as long as rates remain favorable.

How much can buyers save with the current rates?
Savings vary by loan size, but buyers of higher-priced homes can save hundreds to over $900 per month compared to rates from January 2025.

Local Market Expert Summary