March Market Update

Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – March 2026
By Gina Piper | Published March 2026

Key Takeaways

Mortgage rates: Increased to 6.5%–6.625% after briefly dipping below 6%
Inventory levels: Rising across all Tri-Valley cities as spring market builds
Seller activity: Continued increase as more homes come to market
Buyer demand: Remains stable despite rate increases
Upper-end market: Surprisingly active, with strong sales in the $2.5M–$3M range
Spring outlook: Competition increasing as inventory and demand rise

Mortgage Rates Reverse Course

Current Rate Environment

30-year fixed mortgage rates: Approximately 6.5%–6.625% (March 2026)
Up from sub-6% levels briefly seen in February
Increase driven by geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and inflation concerns

After briefly reaching their lowest levels in nearly four years, mortgage rates have moved higher over the past month. Much of this increase is tied to the situation in Iran, which has contributed to rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns.

There is also growing discussion about the possibility of a Fed rate increase at an upcoming meeting if inflation data comes in stronger than expected, a notable shift from earlier expectations of rate cuts in 2026.

What This Means for Buyers

While rates have increased, buyer activity has remained strong, suggesting many believe this is a temporary move rather than a long-term trend.

Loan Amount Payment @ 5.95% Payment @ 6.625% Monthly Increase
$1,000,000 ~$5,980 ~$6,400 ~$420
$1,500,000 ~$8,970 ~$9,600 ~$630
$2,000,000 ~$11,960 ~$12,800 ~$840

Even modest increases in rates can impact affordability, but current buyer behavior indicates continued confidence in the market.

Tri-Valley Inventory Levels

Current Snapshot (March 2026)

City Active Listings Change from February
Pleasanton: 102 homes +27
Dublin: 127 homes +26
Livermore: 140 homes +17
San Ramon: 139 homes +38
Danville: 120 homes +9
Alamo: 38 homes +1

Inventory continues to rise across all Tri-Valley cities, which is typical as we move further into the spring market. San Ramon experienced the largest increase month over month, while Alamo saw only a modest change in total inventory.

Days on market have remained stable or declined slightly across most cities. Notably, Alamo saw a significant improvement, with average days on market dropping from 84 days to 38 days, indicating a sharp increase in buyer activity at the higher end.

Buyer Demand Remains Strong

What I’m Seeing on the Ground:

Strong showing activity despite higher mortgage rates
Multiple-offer situations still occurring on well-prepared homes
Turnkey, updated properties continue to perform best
Strong activity in the $2.5M–$3M price range

The market continues to reward:

Proper preparation
Strategic pricing
High-quality presentation

Buyers remain active, although they are still selective and value-conscious.

Spring Market Gaining Momentum

Historically:

Inventory rises through March and April
Buyer demand strengthens into mid-spring
Peak competition typically occurs in April and May

2026 continues to follow this seasonal pattern, with both inventory and buyer activity increasing simultaneously.

Why This Matters for Sellers

Despite higher mortgage rates, buyer demand remains resilient
Well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still attracting strong interest
The window before peak competition is narrowing

What This Means for Sellers

Advantages of Listing in March–April 2026:

Active buyer pool despite recent rate increases
Opportunity to list before peak inventory hits
Strong demand for turnkey homes
Potential to benefit if rates decline again later this year

What This Means for Buyers

Advantages:

More inventory compared to earlier in the year
Opportunity to purchase before potential rate declines increase competition
Less competition than expected given current rate environment

Challenges:

Higher borrowing costs than just a month ago
Desirable homes still receiving multiple offers
Need to act quickly on well-priced properties

Frequently Asked Questions

Are mortgage rates likely to decrease again?
Many expect the recent increase to be temporary, though rates will depend heavily on inflation trends and geopolitical developments.

Are homes still receiving multiple offers?
Yes, particularly for well-prepared and competitively priced homes.

Is buyer demand slowing due to higher rates?
Not significantly. Demand remains strong, indicating buyers are looking beyond short-term rate fluctuations.

Will inventory continue rising?
Yes. Spring typically brings additional listings through April and May.

Is now a good time to sell?
Yes. Strong demand combined with rising inventory creates an opportunity to sell before peak competition arrives.

Market Forecast: Next 90 Days

March 2026

Inventory: Increasing
Rates: Recently increased, likely volatile
Buyer activity: Strong
Competition: Building

April 2026

Inventory: Near peak spring levels
Rates: Dependent on inflation and global events
Buyer activity: Very active
Competition: High

May 2026

Inventory: High
Rates: Potential stabilization
Buyer activity: Strong but more distributed
Competition: Elevated

Local Market Summary

As of March 2026, the Tri-Valley real estate market—including Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, San Ramon, Danville, and Alamo—is experiencing rising inventory levels alongside an increase in mortgage rates to the mid-6% range. Despite higher rates, buyer demand remains stable, with multiple offers still occurring on well-prepared homes. The upper end of the market has shown notable strength, particularly in the $2.5M–$3M range. While uncertainty around inflation and potential Fed action remains, the market continues to demonstrate resilience as we move into the peak spring season.