August 2025 Market Update

Tri-Valley Market Update – August 2025

The Tri-Valley market saw a slight dip in inventory levels this month across all cities, with Livermore seeing the largest decline with 24 fewer homes. This decline isn’t necessarily being driven by a surge in pending sales, the decline is mostly due to fewer new listings hitting the market. In other words, homes aren’t necessarily flying off the shelves, there’s just less new product being stocked.

Adding to the slower pace, the average number of days on market ticked up in every Tri-Valley city, increasing by an average of 3 days. This suggests that buyers are still moving cautiously, despite improving interest rates.

On the interest rate front, mortgage rates dropped to their lowest point in 10 months this week. While that sounds like it should be a spark for activity, so far it hasn’t lit much of a fire under buyers. Showing traffic and offers remain very sluggish for many properties in all price ranges. Looking ahead, the market is widely anticipating a potential rate cut at September’s Federal Reserve meeting. However, as we saw last year, Fed rate cuts don’t always translate directly to lower mortgage rates, and in some cases, mortgage rates can even rise afterward.

Historically, the Tri-Valley market tends to see a modest burst of activity in mid-to-late September as families settle into school routines and buyers refocus on moving before the holidays. I expect this seasonal uptick to happen again this year, though the strength of that rebound will likely depend on how buyers respond to the evolving interest rate landscape.

See the chart below for today’s inventory and days-on-market data, and the graph showing the rate level activity for 2025.