Pleasanton & Tri-Valley Real Estate Market Update – September 2026

Key Takeaways

Mortgage rates: Remain elevated, with the 30 year fixed mortgage recently averaging near 7%

Inventory levels: Beginning their typical seasonal decline across much of the Tri-Valley

Days on Market: Homes are generally taking longer to sell as buyers remain selective

Buyer demand: Overall activity remains sluggish, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges

Pricing: Properly priced homes are still selling, while overpriced properties are sitting longer and requiring price reductions

Federal Reserve: Raised rates 0.25% in September, its first increase in three years

Fall outlook: Declining inventory creates an opportunity for sellers who price and prepare their homes appropriately

Mortgage Rates Remain a Challenge for Buyers

Current Rate Environment

Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest factors affecting today's real estate market.

Long term Treasury yields recently climbed to levels not seen in nearly two decades, with the 10 year Treasury briefly reaching approximately 5%. Because mortgage rates tend to closely follow movements in long term Treasury yields, borrowing costs moved higher as well, with the average 30 year fixed mortgage approaching 7%.

The increase has been driven by several factors, including persistent inflation concerns, elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran, and concerns in the bond market about the country's fiscal outlook.

We have seen some improvement in rates over the past several days as oil prices declined on renewed hopes of an agreement involving Iran. Whether that improvement continues will likely depend heavily on oil prices, inflation data, and developments in the bond market.

The Federal Reserve added another wrinkle last week when it increased its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, its first rate increase since 2023. The Fed continues to emphasize its commitment to bringing inflation back toward its 2% target, and policymakers have indicated that additional tightening could occur later this year.

What This Means for Buyers

The reality is that today's higher interest rates may be with us for a while.

Buyers waiting for mortgage rates to return to the historically low levels of several years ago may need to adjust their expectations. Rates will certainly fluctuate, but the economic environment that produced 3% and 4% mortgages was unusual.

The good news for today's buyers is that higher rates have reduced competition and created considerably more negotiating leverage than buyers had during the extremely competitive markets of a few years ago.

Tri-Valley Inventory Is Beginning Its Seasonal Decline

Current Snapshot (September 2026)

After remaining relatively stable throughout the summer, we're beginning to see the seasonal decline in inventory that typically occurs as we move into fall.

Pleasanton, Dublin, and San Ramon each saw inventory decline by 15 homes over the past month. Livermore, Danville, and Alamo remained essentially unchanged.

I expect inventory to continue gradually declining through the remainder of the year as fewer homeowners traditionally choose to list their properties during the fall and holiday seasons.

Fall Can Create an Opportunity for Sellers

Some homeowners automatically assume spring is always the best time to sell, but fall can offer an important advantage: less competition.

As inventory declines, buyers have fewer homes to choose from. A properly prepared and strategically priced home can stand out considerably more when competing against fewer listings.

There are still buyers who need or want to purchase a home regardless of the time of year. Job changes, family needs, relocations, marriages, divorces, and other life events don't necessarily follow the traditional spring selling season.

For sellers who are ready to move, waiting until spring isn't always the best strategy.

Pricing for Today's Market Is Critical

What We're Seeing on the Ground

The overall market remains sluggish, but homes are absolutely still selling.

The biggest difference we're seeing is between sellers who recognize today's market conditions and those who are still pricing based on the market of several years ago.

Homes that are priced correctly are still selling relatively quickly. Conversely, overpriced homes are frequently sitting on the market for extended periods before eventually requiring one or more price reductions.

Sellers need to recognize that we are no longer in the market of 2021, 2022, or 2023.

Buyers have more choices, borrowing costs are substantially higher, and they're far more price sensitive than they were when mortgage rates were exceptionally low.

Preparation and Presentation Matter More Than Ever

Pricing is only part of the equation.

Today's buyers overwhelmingly prefer homes that are turnkey and ready to move into. With renovation, labor, and financing costs remaining high, many buyers simply don't want to take on significant projects after purchasing a home.

That makes preparation extremely important.

Fresh paint, flooring, landscaping, repairs, staging, professional photography, and thoughtful presentation can dramatically change how buyers perceive a property.

Homes that look exceptional when they first hit the market have a significant advantage over properties that require buyers to imagine what they could become.

Price Reductions Remain Common

We're continuing to see a significant number of price reductions throughout the Tri-Valley.

In many cases, this isn't because the home itself has declined dramatically in value. The property simply entered the market at a price buyers weren't willing to pay.

The longer an overpriced home remains on the market, the more difficult the sale can become. Buyers begin wondering why it hasn't sold, and the seller can eventually find themselves chasing the market downward with repeated price reductions.

Getting the price right from the beginning has become increasingly important.

Lower and Middle Price Ranges Remain Sluggish

The lower and middle portions of the market continue to feel the greatest impact from elevated mortgage rates.

These buyers typically finance a larger percentage of their purchase, which makes monthly affordability much more sensitive to changes in interest rates.

As a result, buyers in these segments are taking longer to make decisions, negotiating more aggressively, and becoming increasingly selective about condition and price.

Condos and townhomes remain particularly sensitive to this dynamic because buyers in those segments tend to be more dependent on financing.

Luxury Market Continues to Show Strength

The upper end of the Tri-Valley market continues to outperform the lower and middle price ranges.

Higher net worth buyers are generally less dependent on financing, with many purchasing with substantial down payments or cash. This makes them considerably less sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage rates.

Well presented luxury properties that are priced appropriately continue to generate healthy interest despite the broader slowdown.

Fall Market Outlook

Looking ahead, I expect inventory to continue gradually declining through the remainder of the year.

Mortgage rates remain the biggest variable.

Recent declines in oil prices and renewed hopes for progress involving Iran have provided some relief to the bond market, but inflation remains the Federal Reserve's primary concern. The Fed's September rate increase reinforces the fact that policymakers are willing to keep monetary policy restrictive until they're confident inflation is under control.

Unless we see a meaningful decline in mortgage rates, I expect buyer activity to remain somewhat subdued, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges.

However, fewer homes coming to market during the fall should provide some balance and create opportunities for sellers who properly prepare and price their homes.

Why This Matters for Sellers

Today's market isn't necessarily a bad market for sellers. It's simply a market that requires a different strategy.

There is less room for aspirational pricing than there was several years ago. Buyers are informed, patient, and willing to wait when they believe a home is overpriced.

At the same time, desirable homes that are properly prepared, beautifully presented, and priced appropriately can still sell quickly.

The key is accepting the market we're in today rather than pricing based on the market we used to have.

What This Means for Sellers

Advantages

• Fall inventory is beginning to decline, creating less competition.
• Properly priced homes continue to sell relatively quickly.
• Turnkey properties continue to attract the strongest buyer interest.
• Luxury demand remains comparatively healthy.

Challenges

• Mortgage rates remain elevated.
• Buyers are increasingly price sensitive.
• Price reductions remain common on overpriced listings.
• Homes requiring significant updating need to be priced accordingly.

What This Means for Buyers

Advantages

• Buyers have significantly more negotiating leverage than they did several years ago.
• Price reductions are creating opportunities.
• Longer marketing times give buyers more time to evaluate their options.
• Sellers with homes that have been on the market for extended periods may be increasingly motivated.

Challenges

• Mortgage rates remain near 7%.
• Monthly affordability remains difficult, particularly in lower and middle price ranges.
• The best turnkey homes can still attract strong competition.
• Declining fall inventory will gradually reduce the number of available choices.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are mortgage rates likely to decline soon?

Mortgage rates have eased somewhat following recent improvements in oil prices and renewed hopes for progress involving Iran. However, persistent inflation and elevated Treasury yields make a significant near term decline difficult to predict.

Why did the Federal Reserve raise rates?

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25% in September as it continues working to bring inflation back toward its 2% target. Policymakers have also indicated that another increase remains possible this year.

Why are so many homes reducing their prices?

In many cases, sellers entered the market with pricing expectations based on conditions from several years ago. Today's buyers are considerably more price sensitive, and homes that are priced above perceived market value often require reductions before attracting offers.

Are homes still selling quickly?

Yes. Homes that are properly prepared, show exceptionally well, and are priced appropriately can still sell very quickly.

Is fall a good time to sell?

It can be. While there are typically fewer buyers than during the spring, there are also fewer competing listings. For sellers with a desirable, well prepared home, reduced inventory can create an excellent opportunity to stand out.

Market Forecast: Next 90 Days

October 2026

Inventory: Declining

Rates: Elevated and potentially volatile

Buyer activity: Moderate

Competition: Declining as fewer homes enter the market

November 2026

Inventory: Continuing seasonal decline

Rates: Dependent on inflation, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policy

Buyer activity: Seasonally slower

Competition: Lower

December 2026

Inventory: Approaching seasonal lows

Rates: Likely to remain elevated without a meaningful improvement in inflation

Buyer activity: Seasonally low

Competition: Lowest levels of the year

Local Market Summary

As of September 2026, the Tri-Valley housing market is beginning its normal transition into the fall season. Inventory has started declining across several of the area's largest markets, while elevated mortgage rates continue to limit buyer activity, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges.

Despite the slower overall market, homes that are properly prepared and priced according to today's conditions continue to sell relatively quickly. Overpriced homes are experiencing longer marketing times and frequent price reductions, reinforcing the importance of establishing the right strategy before a property comes to market.

For sellers, declining fall inventory can create an opportunity. With fewer competing homes available, a well prepared property can stand out and attract serious buyers who remain active throughout the fall.

Today's market isn't the market of several years ago, but that doesn't mean homes aren't selling. Success comes from understanding current conditions, preparing the home properly, and pricing it where today's buyers see value.