October Tri-Valley Market Update
Real Estate Trends Gina Piper October 26, 2026
Real Estate Trends Gina Piper October 26, 2026
Published October 2026
Mortgage rates: Rates recently reached three-year highs, with many lenders quoting rates in the low 7% range
Inventory levels: Remain relatively stable across the Tri-Valley, with a seasonal decline expected over the coming months
Days on Market: Marketing times increased in most Tri-Valley cities as buyers continue to be selective
Buyer demand: Overall market activity remains sluggish, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges
Luxury market: Higher-end properties continue to outperform the lower and middle portions of the market
New construction: Strong activity in select developments, including Dublin Ranch, where competitively priced new homes are selling quickly
Market outlook: Inventory is expected to decline through the holidays before rebounding in late winter and early spring
Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest factors affecting today's real estate market.
After remaining elevated throughout much of the year, mortgage rates recently climbed to their highest levels in approximately three years, with many lenders quoting 30-year mortgage rates in the low 7% range.
Here in the Bay Area, where jumbo financing is common due to our higher home prices, elevated borrowing costs continue to have a significant impact on affordability.
The ongoing uncertainty surrounding inflation, government borrowing, and the bond market has made it difficult for mortgage rates to improve meaningfully. While rates will undoubtedly fluctuate, buyers and sellers may need to become increasingly comfortable with the possibility that today's higher borrowing costs will remain with us for some time.
After years of historically low mortgage rates, the market is continuing to adjust to a very different financing environment.
One trend we're seeing is an increasing number of buyers turning to adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to help offset today's higher borrowing costs.
Seven-year adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer a fixed interest rate for the first seven years before becoming adjustable, have become particularly attractive. Some lenders are offering these loans at rates below 6%, providing substantial savings compared to traditional 30-year fixed mortgages currently in the low 7% range.
For a buyer financing $1 million, the difference between a 7.25% fixed rate and a 5.875% adjustable rate translates to approximately $900 in monthly savings in principal and interest payments, assuming a 30-year amortization.
Of course, these loans come with some risk. Once the initial fixed-rate period expires, the interest rate can increase depending on market conditions, potentially resulting in higher monthly payments. Buyers need to understand the adjustment terms, rate caps, and their ability to afford future payments.
However, many buyers are comfortable accepting that risk in exchange for the significant monthly savings, particularly if they anticipate selling, refinancing, or paying down a substantial portion of their mortgage before the initial seven-year fixed period expires.
For qualified buyers who understand the risks, these loans can provide an attractive alternative to traditional fixed-rate financing in today's higher-rate environment.
Higher rates continue to have the greatest impact on buyers in the lower and middle portions of the market, where monthly payments and affordability play a much larger role in purchasing decisions.
Even relatively small changes in mortgage rates can have a significant impact on purchasing power, particularly in the Bay Area, where home prices remain substantially higher than national averages.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are providing some buyers with an alternative to the higher payments associated with traditional fixed-rate loans. However, choosing the right loan requires carefully evaluating both the initial savings and the potential for future payment increases.
The good news is that today's slower market has created considerably more negotiating leverage than buyers had during the highly competitive markets of several years ago.
Buyers generally have more time to evaluate properties, and sellers are often more willing to negotiate on price and other terms.
City | Active Listings | Change from September | Average DOM |
|---|---|---|---|
Pleasanton | 104 homes | No change | 44 |
Dublin | 149 homes | -5 | 49 |
Livermore | 167 homes | -6 | 58 |
San Ramon | 137 homes | -4 | 47 |
Danville | 147 homes | +4 | 43 |
Alamo | 32 homes | +5 | 37 |
Inventory levels remained remarkably stable throughout the Tri-Valley during October.
Pleasanton was unchanged at 104 active listings, while Dublin, Livermore, and San Ramon experienced modest declines. Danville and Alamo saw small increases in available inventory.
Overall, the six markets combined had 736 active listings compared to 742 in September, a decline of less than 1%.
This stability is consistent with the seasonal pattern we typically see during the early fall. After several months of relatively steady inventory levels, I expect available listings to begin declining more noticeably as we approach the holiday season.
Historically, inventory reaches its lowest levels during the winter months before beginning to rebound in late winter and early spring as more homeowners prepare to sell.
One trend that continues to stand out is the increase in marketing times throughout much of the Tri-Valley.
Average days on market increased in Pleasanton, Dublin, Livermore, and Danville during October, while San Ramon and Alamo experienced declines.
Livermore now has the longest average marketing time at 58 days, followed by Dublin at 49 days and San Ramon at 47 days.
These longer marketing times reflect the more deliberate pace of today's buyers.
Higher mortgage rates have reduced purchasing power, and buyers are taking considerably more time to evaluate their options before making offers.
That doesn't mean homes aren't selling. It simply means buyers are more selective, particularly when it comes to price, condition, and overall value.
Overall market activity remains relatively sluggish, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges.
Buyers continue to be cautious as they navigate higher mortgage rates, elevated home prices, and ongoing economic uncertainty.
We're still seeing homes sit on the market for extended periods, often requiring price reductions before attracting serious interest.
However, homes that are properly prepared, priced appropriately, and offer good value continue to sell.
The biggest difference we're seeing is between sellers who recognize today's market conditions and those who are still pricing based on the market of several years ago.
Buyers have become considerably more price sensitive, and homes that are priced above market value are often overlooked in favor of better-priced alternatives.
One encouraging trend we're seeing is the strength of new construction in certain parts of the Tri-Valley, particularly Dublin Ranch.
New homes in some of these developments are selling quickly as they become available, demonstrating that buyer demand remains healthy when the right combination of price, location, and condition is offered.
What's particularly interesting is that some new construction is being priced competitively with existing resale homes.
For buyers, this can create an attractive opportunity.
When a brand-new home is priced similarly to an existing property, buyers may see considerable value in purchasing a home with modern floor plans, contemporary finishes, updated building standards, and fewer immediate maintenance concerns.
New construction also appeals to buyers who prefer a turnkey property and don't want to take on renovation projects after moving in.
Of course, buyers should carefully compare the total cost of ownership, including HOA fees, special assessments, lot sizes, and any additional costs associated with new construction.
Still, the strength we're seeing in select new home developments reinforces an important point: buyers are willing to act when they believe they're getting good value.
The lower and middle portions of the Tri-Valley market continue to experience the greatest challenges.
Buyers in these price ranges typically finance a larger percentage of their purchases, making them significantly more sensitive to elevated mortgage rates.
As a result, affordability remains a major obstacle, and buyers are taking longer to make decisions.
Condominiums and townhomes remain particularly sensitive to this dynamic because buyers in those segments tend to be more dependent on financing.
Until mortgage rates improve meaningfully, I expect these portions of the market to remain relatively subdued.
The upper end of the Tri-Valley market continues to demonstrate considerably more strength than the lower and middle price ranges.
Higher-net-worth buyers are generally less dependent on financing, with many purchasing with substantial down payments or cash.
This makes them less sensitive to fluctuations in mortgage rates and allows them to make purchasing decisions based more heavily on lifestyle, location, and the quality of the property.
Well-presented luxury homes that are priced appropriately continue to attract buyers, even as the broader market experiences longer marketing times.
This difference between the upper end and the more rate-sensitive portions of the market has been one of the most consistent trends we've observed throughout 2026.
Today's market continues to reward sellers who properly prepare their homes and price them strategically from the beginning.
Buyers overwhelmingly prefer homes that are turnkey and ready to move into.
With renovation costs remaining high, many buyers are reluctant to take on substantial improvement projects immediately after purchasing a property.
Fresh paint, updated flooring, landscaping, necessary repairs, professional staging, and high-quality marketing can make a meaningful difference in how a property is received.
However, even the best-prepared home can struggle if it's priced too aggressively.
Sellers need to recognize that today's buyers are making decisions based on current mortgage rates, current market conditions, and the alternatives available to them.
The market of 2021 and 2022 is behind us, and pricing strategies need to reflect that reality.
Many homeowners assume spring is always the best time to sell, but the fall and winter months can offer an important advantage: less competition.
As inventory declines, buyers have fewer homes to choose from.
Although buyer activity also tends to slow during the holidays, those who remain active are often serious about making a purchase.
For sellers with a well-prepared home, reduced competition can create an opportunity to stand out in a market with fewer available properties.
Waiting until spring may mean entering the market when buyer activity improves, but it also means competing against a larger number of homes.
The best time to sell ultimately depends on the individual property, the seller's circumstances, and the amount of competing inventory in that particular neighborhood and price range.
Looking ahead, I expect inventory to begin declining over the next several months as we move through the holiday season and into winter.
This is a normal seasonal pattern and one we've experienced consistently throughout my years selling real estate in the Tri-Valley.
Inventory will likely begin increasing again in late winter and early spring as homeowners prepare for the traditionally more active spring selling season.
Mortgage rates remain the biggest variable affecting buyer demand.
Unless we see a meaningful improvement in rates, I expect activity in the lower and middle price ranges to remain somewhat sluggish.
However, the continued strength of the luxury market and the encouraging activity we're seeing in select new construction developments suggest that buyers remain willing to act when they recognize good value.
Today's market isn't necessarily a bad market for sellers. It's simply a market that requires a different approach.
There is considerably less room for aspirational pricing than there was several years ago.
Buyers are informed, patient, and increasingly willing to wait when they believe a home is overpriced.
At the same time, desirable homes that are properly prepared, beautifully presented, and priced appropriately can still sell relatively quickly.
With inventory expected to decline over the coming months, sellers who are ready to move may benefit from having fewer competing listings.
The key is understanding current market conditions and developing a strategy that reflects what today's buyers are willing to pay.
Mortgage rates remain elevated, and predicting when they might improve meaningfully is difficult. Inflation, Treasury yields, economic conditions, and Federal Reserve policy will continue to influence borrowing costs. Buyers should be prepared for the possibility that higher rates will remain part of the market for some time.
For some buyers, absolutely. Seven-year adjustable-rate mortgages can offer significantly lower initial rates than traditional 30-year fixed loans. For example, on a $1 million loan, a reduction from 7.25% to 5.875% can save approximately $900 per month in principal and interest payments. However, buyers need to understand the potential for future rate increases and make sure the loan fits their long-term financial plans.
Higher mortgage rates have reduced affordability, causing buyers to become more selective and deliberate. Homes that are priced above current market value are particularly vulnerable to extended marketing times.
It can be. We're seeing strength in select developments, including Dublin Ranch, where new homes are selling quickly as they become available. When new construction is priced competitively with comparable resale properties, it can offer excellent value, particularly for buyers seeking a turnkey home.
Yes. Homes that are properly prepared, show exceptionally well, and are priced appropriately can still sell relatively quickly, even in today's slower market.
I expect inventory to gradually decline over the next several months as we move through the holidays and into winter. Historically, inventory begins increasing again in late winter and early spring.
That depends on the property and the seller's circumstances. Spring typically brings more buyers, but it also brings more competing listings. Selling during the fall or winter can provide an advantage when there are fewer homes available for buyers to choose from.
Inventory: Beginning seasonal decline
Rates: Elevated and potentially volatile
Buyer activity: Moderate to slow
Competition: Declining as fewer homes enter the market
Inventory: Continuing to decline toward seasonal lows
Rates: Dependent on inflation and the bond market
Buyer activity: Seasonally slower
Competition: Lower overall, particularly in the resale market
Inventory: Near seasonal lows, with early signs of new listings entering the market
Rates: Dependent on economic conditions and inflation
Buyer activity: Potential for gradual improvement following the holidays
Competition: Beginning to increase as the spring market approaches
As of October 2026, the Tri-Valley housing market remains relatively sluggish, with inventory levels holding steady and average marketing times increasing across much of the region.
Elevated mortgage rates continue to limit buyer activity, particularly in the lower and middle price ranges, while the luxury market remains comparatively strong. Some buyers are turning to adjustable-rate mortgages to improve affordability, taking advantage of lower initial rates while accepting the possibility of higher payments in the future.
One encouraging development is the strength we're seeing in select new construction communities, including Dublin Ranch, where competitively priced new homes are selling quickly. This reinforces the importance of value in today's market.
Looking ahead, I expect inventory to decline through the holiday season before gradually rebounding in late winter and early spring.
For sellers, the coming months may offer an opportunity to benefit from reduced competition. Homes that are properly prepared, professionally marketed, and priced according to current conditions can still attract serious buyers and sell relatively quickly.
Today's market is certainly different from the one we experienced several years ago, but opportunities remain for both buyers and sellers who understand the current conditions and develop the right strategy.
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